Capital Crime Story: A Tale of Two Mayors

Crime in London has long been a contentious issue, with the city’s safety under scrutiny through the tenures of its mayors. The contrasting records of former Mayor Boris Johnson and current Mayor Sadiq Khan paint a stark picture of shifting crime trends, underpinned by data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other reliable sources. This blog post examines how Johnson inherited a high crime rate, reduced it significantly, and how those gains were reversed under Khan’s leadership, despite repeated claims from Khan and the Metropolitan Police that crime is decreasing. The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Boris Johnson’s Tenure: A Steady Decline in Crime

When Boris Johnson became Mayor of London in May 2008, he inherited a city grappling with approximately 800,000 recorded crimes per annum, based on estimates from available data for the 2008–09 period. Statista, Crime in London. This figure aligns with the high crime rates of the early 2000s, with violent crimes like assault with injury standing at 70,962 offences (9.5 per 1,000 population) in 2008–09.

Under Johnson’s leadership, which spanned from 2008 to 2016, crime figures steadily declined. Initiatives such as Operation Blunt II, relaunched in 2008 to tackle youth violence and knife crime, contributed to early successes in reducing specific offences. By 2014, homicides reached a historic low of 83, down from an average of 160 per year between 1990 and 2003. Total recorded crimes fell to 743,728 by the 2015–16 reporting year, reflecting a crime rate of approximately 85 offences per 1,000 people. This marked a significant achievement, driven by targeted policing strategies and a relatively stable Metropolitan Police budget, which stood at £3.62 billion in 2012–13.

Johnson’s tenure was not without challenges—knife crime remained a persistent issue, and robbery rates, while reduced from their 2001–02 peak of 7.1 per 1,000, still required attention. Nonetheless, the downward trend in overall crime was clear, setting a benchmark for his successor.

Sadiq Khan’s Tenure: A Marked Rise in Crime

When Sadiq Khan assumed the mayoralty in May 2016, he inherited Johnson’s final crime figure of 743,728 recorded offences for 2015–16. However, under Khan’s oversight, crime began to climb almost immediately, reversing the gains made during Johnson’s eight years. By 2016–17, estimated crimes rose to approximately 770,000, and by 2017–18, homicides spiked to 159, including 14 from terrorist attacks (Westminster Bridge, London Bridge, and Finsbury Park). The upward trajectory continued, with 2019–20 recording a peak of 912,487 offences, a crime rate of 102.4 per 1,000 people, driven by a surge in violent crimes (15,928 knife offences) and 149 homicide. 

The only reprieve came during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–21), when lockdowns reduced certain crimes like theft and robbery, leading to an estimated dip to around 850,000 offences. This was a temporary anomaly, as crime rates resumed their climb post-lockdown. By 2022–23, recorded crimes reached 887,870, and in 2023–24, they hit 938,020, a 21% increase from the 774,734 recorded in Khan’s first year (2016–17). Violent crime soared to 252,545 offences in 2023–24, with knife crime at 15,016, close to its pre-pandemic high. The crime rate rose to 105.8 per 1,000, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Misleading Claims from Khan and the Metropolitan Police

Despite the mounting evidence of rising crime, Sadiq Khan and the Metropolitan Police have repeatedly claimed that crime is decreasing under their watch. Khan’s office has pointed to selective metrics, such as a reduction in violence with injury (-18% in the year to March 2024) and lower homicide numbers (104 in 2023–24 compared to 159 in 2017–18), to argue that Londoners are safer. A spokesperson for Khan stated, “Londoners are less likely to be a victim of violence resulting in injury than across the rest of England and Wales,” citing ONS figures. The Metropolitan Police has echoed this narrative, highlighting declines in specific categories like possession of weapons (-20%) and stalking (-10%).

These claims are misleading when viewed against the broader data. Total recorded crimes have risen consistently, with 2023–24’s 938,020 offences marking a significant increase from Johnson’s 743,728. The focus on isolated reductions obscures the overall trend: violent crime remains at elevated levels (252,545 offences for only the second quarter of the year), and knife crime is near its 2019–20 peak. Critics argue that Khan’s emphasis on specific declines ignores the broader surge in crime, including a 53% increase in shoplifting, which Khan blamed on London having too many shops, and a 28% rise in theft in 2023–24. Moreover, allegations of under-reporting by the Metropolitan Police under Khan’s tenure have raised concerns about the reliability of official figures.

Full Fact debunked a 2020 claim by journalist Dan Wootton that crime in London had risen “five times faster” than the rest of England since Khan took office, clarifying that crime per person increased by 18% in London compared to 31% nationally from 2016 to 2020. However, this does not negate the absolute rise in London’s crime figures, which have outpaced Johnson’s lows. The Guardian’s analysis further notes that while London’s crime rate (14.9% victimisation rate in 2023) is lower than the national average (15.7%), this masks the severity of violent crime and knife offences, which remain disproportionately high.

The Bigger Picture: Budgets, Policing, and Accountability

The rise in crime under Khan coincides with a challenging period for the Metropolitan Police. Austerity measures from 2010 to 2019 reduced officer numbers by about 3,000 (from 2010 to 2018) and cut the police budget to £3.3 billion by 2018–19. While funding has since increased to £4.53 billion in 2023–24 and officer numbers rose to 34,900, planned cuts of 1,700 officers due to budget constraints threaten further setbacks . Khan’s initiatives, like the £500,000 Violence Reduction Unit announced in 2018, have been criticised as insufficient to address the scale of the problem.

In contrast, Johnson’s era benefited from more consistent funding and a focus on high-visibility policing, which may have contributed to the crime decline. Khan’s critics, including Conservative figures, argue that his reluctance to fully embrace stop-and-search tactics—previously effective in removing 500 knives a month from London’s streets—has exacerbated the rise in violent crime.

Conclusion: Numbers Don’t Lie, But People Do

The data is unequivocal: Boris Johnson inherited a London with around 800,000 annual crimes and reduced this to 743,728 by 2015–16. Under Sadiq Khan, crime figures climbed steadily, reaching 938,020 in 2023–24, with only a brief pandemic-induced dip. Yet, Khan and the Metropolitan Police continue to assert that crime is down, cherry-picking statistics to obscure the broader surge in offences, particularly violent crime. Londoners deserve transparency and accountability, not selective narratives that downplay a growing crisis. For detailed crime data, explore the London Datastore or ONS Crime Statistics .

As the capital grapples with rising knife crime, shoplifting, and theft, the question remains: will Khan’s policies adapt to confront the reality, or will the gap between official claims and lived experiences continue to widen?